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How split on legislative candidates are voters?

A Lee Newspaper poll released over the weekend shows that voters are evenly divided between Republican and Democratic legislative candidates.  According to the poll, 41% of voters prefer Republicans and 40% Democrats, which is within the poll's 4% margin of error.

These Lee polls, conducted by Mason-Dixon, appear from time to time and are typically skewed to Democrats.  This is likely because the Lee poll surveys all voters, not likely voters.  A previous Lee poll, released in early October 2006, had similar numbers for legislative candidates: 45% Republican, 42% Democratic - a three point spread.

However, it's rightly said that the only poll that matters is the one that occurs on Election Day.  One month after the October Lee poll, Republicans cruised to a 53.5% to 46.5% victory over Democrats in contested legislative elections - a seven point spread.  However, due to partisan gerrymandering perpetrated by the Democrats in 2001, that seven-point advantage didn't translate into an appreciable majority.

The point is that you have to take these Lee polls with a grain of salt.

Posted on Monday, July 2, 2007 at 09:48AM by Registered CommenterCarter in | Comments1 Comment

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Reader Comments (1)

Democrats only won 44.3% of contested House races -- it's just that you guys didn't contest much.

In other words, the district lines meant that Dems apparently underperformed given vote totals.

The horror!

July 5, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterThat Guy

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